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Bobo Lo on Russia, Wagner and the Ukraine War

Lowy Institute

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The Importance of Signals From Putin's Speeches

The most obvious challenge is what do you do with Prigorsion himself. Putin cannot really let him go unpunished because if he does, his presidential authority will be irreparably damaged. But on the other hand, there are real risks to eliminating him, which is normally what a good authoritarian leader does. So what they've done is, as we've seen, send him to Belarus. There's a kind of stock gap solution. If this works, then Putin gets credit for having made a wise strategic decision. And if it fails, then it becomes Progogians fault. He becomes the scapegoat. Much I think will depend on his nerve.

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