People who did worse in the previous competition tended oremember slightly better outcomes. People seem to be exaggerating their own past performance in their head when this performance is bad. They remember good outcomes and they tend to forget bad ones. This is where memory comes into play. Or maybe you'd call it optimism or delusion. But there's also the possibility that people whave been at something for a while, who may consider themselves expert, that they simply don't believe that non experts are worth paying attention to.
There are a lot of barriers to changing your mind: ego, overconfidence, inertia — and cost. Politicians who flip-flop get mocked; family and friends who cross tribal borders are shunned. But shouldn’t we be encouraging people to change their minds? And how can we get better at it ourselves?