The Recessionary Price of a Faster Decline in Inflation
Notes on the Week Ahead
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The Fed's Implicit Recession Prediction
The Fed's implicit recession prediction can be seen in both their growth and unemployment unemployment forecasts. Since 1948, there have been no instances of a decline in real GDP over 3-quarters that was not classified as a recession. While this would be a very mild increase in joblessness relative to past recessions, it would increase poverty and misery for all those families affected. But is this accelerated victory worth the price?
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