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Surveillance: Recession Forecast Loh

Bloomberg Surveillance

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The Banking Crisis in Agency Paper

The bond market does listen to the Fed. If you take a historical look at banking sector crises and stresses defined by 30% drops on average in banking shares, you do tend to see the economy decelerating after that. We actually like agency and BS because volatility has been high and the level of interest rates are high. And those things can mean revert back down.

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