The Lurking Slowdown
Notes on the Week Ahead
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Inflation and the US Labor Market
In January, the average hourly earnings of all workers were up 4.4% year-of-year in a month when we estimate CPI inflation was 6.3%. This will mark the 22nd consecutive month in which wage growth has failed to keep pace with consumer inflation. The reality of the US labor market is that despite an excess demand for workers, businesses are unwilling to overpay for labor.
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