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Bearish but Priced In

The Compound and Friends

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The Risk of Reversals in the Stock Market

There aren't many single variables that predict a stock market's forward returns but one of the powerful ones is inflation. The CPI peaked on a rate of change basis at 9% last June It's around 5 6 depending on whether you use the PC or the CPI and the PC is about to get reported. So clearly the rate of change is coming down as you would expect because of base effects and things like that just like earnings growth You have base effects. I think We don't so I think it will come down. Inflation has proven to be a little stickier in the last month or two Then I think the Fed would have hoped which is why you know Powell changed the narrative or or

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