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The Relationship Between Predictability and Precision
I think there's a number of things going on here that have sort of been conflated, been lumped together. For example, I think it's important to distinguish between feeling confused or anxious and having heightened physiological levels of fear or vulnerability. So, those two things often go together,. There's one study I read about in several places in which it wasn't a study, but this scientist observed some fishermen in a tropical island. And he reported that the fishermen who fished in the shallow waters had fewer superstitious rituals and beliefs than the fishermen who fishing in the deep waters. Which again makes a general connection between lack of predictability of what it was about to happen to you, lack