The Pragmatic Justification of Extraordinary Events

Even from a secular perspective, there's that old maxim of Carl Sagan's that extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. Even despite the fact that this is a far more significant historical event and one which we're expected to believe is authored by a supernatural creator who has a very strong interest in us coming to believe that it occurred. Shouldn't we expect a bit more if God wants us to believe this so badly? This common sensical slogan that extraordinary events require extraordinary evidence I think is demonstrably false. It misunderstands the probability calculus.