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What's the Worst Case Scenario?
Putin feels so boxed in, unable to go back to his own people and say we just wasted tens of thousands of lives here for no reason that he unleashes a tactical nuclear weapon on the battlefield. Nobody knows what happens after that. The off ramp likely is going to be him maintaining Crimea and parts of Lohanskin, Donetsk. It's probably going to be a commitment by Ukraine not to join NATO formally,. But a guarantee by the West to defend Ukraine in case of an invasion of its borders again by Russia like an actual treaty obligation.