K‑Shaped Impact on Holiday Spending

Lupine Skelly, Retail Research Leader at Deloitte, joins Phillip and Alicia to dissect the stark reality behind this year's holiday shopping forecast. Consumer spending is projected to drop by 10%, and economic pessimism has reached its highest level since the Great Recession. As a result, retailers are facing a season where communicating value is key. This conversation explores the enduring vitality of Black Friday, the quiet revolution of private label brands, and how cultural rituals, AI integration, and brand loyalty are being fundamentally rewired. 

The Data Doesn’t Lie

Key Takeaways:

• Shoppers expect to spend $1,595 this season as economic concerns peak
• 57% expect the economy to weaken, the most pessimistic outlook recorded since 1997
• Black Friday remains vital despite two decades of obituaries
• 24% of budgets are spent by October due to the Prime Day effect
• Private label gains ground as brand loyalty fundamentally shifts

Key Quotes:

• [00:02:10.14] Lupine Skelly: "57% of people are saying they expect the economy to weaken in the year ahead, and that's the highest we've seen since we started tracking that question in 1997. To put that in context, 2008 was probably the next highest at 54%—that was around the Great Recession. So [there’s] a lot of uncertainty out there."
• [00:04:42.72] Lupine Skelly: "I feel like people have been trying to kill off Black Friday for 20 years. Is Black Friday dead? It's not dead."
• [00:13:17.91] Lupine Skelly: "In our study, 42% of consumers are saying they're going to use gen AI to find the perfect gift. And even more are saying they're going to use it to find the best deals."
• [00:25:49.24] Lupine Skelly: "Retail is always battling for share of wallet, but I think we're at a very different time period. Gaming, gambling—there's some big juggernauts taking what might have been the money you used to go to the mall years ago."

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