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The Three Elements of a Revolution
In your theory, revolutions occur at the conjuncture of popular grievances, elite infighting and state fiscal crises. So you need these three things, a government that has gotten weak or in debt and doesn't function well,. elites that are willing to turn on the government because they feel it no longer serves their interest or serves the country well. And you need good sections, large sections of the population who've lost their trust in government.