3min chapter

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90 Degrees | Episode #36 The Importance of 4th Quarter W% Over Expected, Betting Awards Markets & Super Bowl Favorites

Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts

CHAPTER

The Predictive Measure of Next Year's Win Probabilities

There's just so many flooky things that happens in the last five minutes or so of a game. So I wanted to look at, all right, who were really the, what were the win probabilities through the kind of halfway point of the fourth quarter? And we came up with one number that makes sense and is slightly more predictive than Pythagorean. We've been pretty successful going back 20 years - 25% ROI on the teams that overperformed but 10% for those underperforming.

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