Nate’s Election Model, the Trouble with Insurance, and How People Get Risk Wrong
Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova
Discussion on Nate's 2024 Election Model and the Potential Trump Win
Analyzing Nate's model predicting a 60% chance of Trump winning in the 2024 elections, focusing on swing states like Pennsylvania and differences between Midwestern and Sun Belt states. The chapter concludes with reflections on the implications of a Trump victory and the importance of realistic assessment.
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