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The Value Perspective

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The Different Types of Probability and Psychology

I use a fair bit of game theory. I do basic simulations, the state versus flow models to build a set of financial projections or financial models. There is a whole set of frameworks and models that come with something like accounting. Psychology is endlessly fascinating to me. It's just amazing what kinds of biases we all have. Even if you know all about probability and so on, your system one thinking versus system two thinking as Dan Kahneman calls it. So when you're thinking with your emotions or instincts, you don't have time to map out all the probabilities and the decision trees and so on. Your mind has a quick way of arriving at an approximate decision and sometimes that approximation can be

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