Which early metrics predict long-term success and why they aren't definitive?

In this high-energy episode of Mostly Growth, CJ Gustafson, Kyle Poyar, and Ben Hillman dive into the hidden levers of SaaS growth and what truly separates startups that scale to $20M+ ARR from those that stall out. They explore eye-opening data from 6,500 companies, revealing how the best improve net retention, raise pricing, and re-engineer their revenue models over time. Alongside the metrics, there’s plenty of playful chaos—like a naming debate over “Yoshinobu Yamamoto Gustafson,” a rapid-fire game of “Founder or Pop Star,” and CJ’s accidental IPO embargo break. It’s part insight, part inside joke, and 100% for SaaS operators and C-suite climbers.

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LINKS: 

Mostly Metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com

CJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/

Growth Unhinged: https://www.growthunhinged.com/

Kyle on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kyle-poyar/

Slacker Stuff: https://www.slackerstuff.com/

Ben on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/slackerstuff/

https://www.growthunhinged.com/p/the-compounding-startup

https://www.growthunhinged.com/p/the-odds-of-making-it

https://www.superme.ai/kylepoyar?conversationId=VgDXTOl2Z89mW7UYXstU0b

https://a16z.com/anatomy-of-an-enterprise-platform-company/

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/hhi.asp

https://navan.com/

https://www.mostlymetrics.com/p/navan-ipo-s1-breakdown

https://x.com/amendandpretend/status/1983588137453416763?s=46

https://x.com/ryan_c_walsh/status/1983705182371475630?s=46

https://www.reddit.com/r/TwinCities/comments/z6hxp8/how_much_are_people_paying_for_residential_snow/

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RELATED EPISODES:

Getting fired 4 times made me a founder | Sam Jacobs of Pavilion

https://youtu.be/8X-JVOF-1A0

Why Founders Are Posting Sad Dinners

https://youtu.be/Zl6NSIHF2Gk

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TIMESTAMPS:

00:00:00 Preview and Intro

00:01:20 Sponsors Pulley and Metronome

00:03:24 Welcome Back Dodgers Banter

00:05:03 SaaS Founder or Pop Star Game

00:07:08 Growth Levers Report Overview

00:08:33 Building for Expansion and Retention

00:10:11 Figure It Out and ICP Discussion

00:11:47 Monthly Growth and Compounding

00:13:44 Pricing Lessons Fat Joe Quote

00:14:46 AI Avatars Introduction

00:15:35 CJ Tests the Kyle Chatbot

00:16:39 AI Costs Beta and Power Users

00:17:54 Using AI for Writing and Research

00:19:52 Cannibalizing Content and Platform Talk

00:21:28 A16z Platform Discussion

00:23:49 Herfindahl Hirschman Index Explained

00:24:33 HHI Applied to Market Entry

00:26:13 CrowdStrike Datadog Multi Product Models

00:29:17 Business Blunders and Navan IPO

00:33:08 Snow Removal Pricing in the Real World

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SPONSORS:

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