One of the key steps was that a super intelligence would be able to solve the protein folding problem. People are often like, how can you know a super intelligence will do? And for some subset of those things they have already been done. So I would claim to have a good prediction track record although it's a little bit iffy because of course I can't quite be proven wrong. Without exhibiting a super intelligence that fails to solve a problem.
Eliezer Yudkowsky insists that once artificial intelligence becomes smarter than people, everyone on earth will die. Listen as Yudkowsky speaks with EconTalk's Russ Roberts on why we should be very, very afraid, and why we're not prepared or able to manage the terrifiying risks of artificial intelligence.