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6 | Liv Boeree on Poker, Aliens, and Thinking in Probabilities
Sean Carroll's Mindscape: Science, Society, Philosophy, Culture, Arts, and Ideas
The Probability of Probability in Poker
The idea of something being 70 30 is just really hard for human beings to latch on to. And maybe this is that those heuristics that we grew up winh inh you know, in the wild, in the velt of africa, i'd like, you'd better make a decision right away under conditions of stress. We have this sake, our brains aren't intuitively equipped to to think accurately around really large numbers or really, really small numbers. But poker, you play enough, you will find my emotions genuinely correlate with, like, i turn the cards up on the flop, er, we get a big all in, and i'm a 12 % under dog
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Speaker 2
I sess of a shock. Ye. Mean, what o you saiyd, about the granularity of probabilities, i think is very true. I mean, i have this idea that almost every one thinks there are only three probabilities for anything. It's either zero %, a hundred %, or fif 50 50. We know nothing. The idea of something being 70 30 is just really hard for human beings to latch on to. And maybe this is that those heuristics that we grew up winh inh you know, in the wild, in the velt of africa, i'd like, you'd better make a decision right away under under conditions of stress. Andnd, you don't get to do things over and over. But so you would really say that your experience as a poker player has given you a better ability to correctly handle those 70 30 situations? Y,
Speaker 1
i think so. I think you, you know, you're familiar with the term scopein sensitivity in terms of, you humans, we we evolved in stead of tribes, probably up to a hundred and 50 or so people. And so beyond that, numbers weren't that useful ntime. We didn't have to count much beyond that. And you know, the classic example of, oh, there's, there's a thousand birds dying in oil, dying from spill somewhere, you'll feel some degree of sadness about that. If i say there's a million birds dying from oyl you don't feel a thousand times sadder. You feel probably a little bit sadder, but not a thousand times. And so
Speaker 3
we have this sake, our brains aren't
Speaker 1
intuitively equipped to to think accurately around really large numbers or really, really small numbers. We just work on this sort of little microscopic level that's in our everyday lives
Speaker 3
a and so
Speaker 1
that, i would say, that's or, in realms of probability, that sorts us out between the sort of 30 per cents and the 70 percents. But beyond that, things just, it feel really, oh, it's, it happens ten % of the time. Oh, that's a never. Ye, that's a never. And, oh, 85 percent time, pretty much always. And i don't knowi i think on the most part, you don't, we don't have an intuitive understanding of what actually, like a five % feel or seven % or ten %. But poker, you play enough, you will, like, i find my emotions genuinely correlate with, like, i turn the cards up on the flop, er, we get a big all in, and i'm a, i'm a 12 % under dog, so am y, i've only got a 12 % chance to win. Well, i'm just not going to get excited. I'm likeke, i ave lot.
Speaker 3
I i can win, ye and or
Speaker 1
if i have one % chance of winning, then my emotions are even less. You know, i'd don't fel anything. I mean, i'm just annoyed that i got, got it in so bad.
Speaker 3
I'm and, but
Speaker 1
if it's a coin flip, my heart will genuinely be racing beause i'm like, wow, i will win this 50 % of the time, and who knows what's going to happen. And so, yeou yuyou have become well calebrated to what these actually, these these probabilities mean, because we've just seen, we've seen these situations so many times over. Does that therefore apply to the everyday world. Mean, yes,
Speaker 2
like if i'm someone says, all your,
Speaker 1
i don't know, ten % to to make a flight, i think i, if i can figure out thati'm roughly ten % to make a flight, then i will be, i would be extremely pleasantly surprised if i did make it, whereas i think. But at the same time, i don't think i'm that well calebrated as i am in poka. Not
Speaker 2
hardyeyes.
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