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Pierre-Simon Laplace

In Our Time: Science

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The Origins of Bayes' Theorem

Bayes theorem was discovered at least a special case of it by Thomas Bayes in the 1740s. It concerns what is sometimes called inverse probability. Inverse probability turns out on its head you have the effects, and you want to work out what the causes are. And Laplace in 1774 rediscovered Bayes' rule or Bayes' conjecture. These days more recently it's absolutely central to machine learning and data science - obviously a very hot topic now.

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