What Next After the NDC?

For COP30, the international climate talks in Brazil in November, the countries of the world are supposed to roll out their new Nationally Determined Contributions or NDCs: their commitments to cut emissions. China’s NDC is particularly eagerly awaited: it is the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases. Its NDC has been described as the most important document that will be published this year. 

In this edition of the Energy Gang, recorded at New York University, host Ed Crooks and regular guest Amy Myers Jaffe (Director of NYU’s Energy, Climate Justice and Sustainability Lab) explore the security, technology and climate implications of China’s energy policy. They are joined by someone who knows a lot about China’s role in the energy transition: David Sandalow, who is the Inaugural Fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University. He talks through China’s rapid clean energy rollout, from solar to EVs, and its implications for the race for dominance in AI. We also welcome back Joseph Webster of the Atlantic Council, who studies China’s energy system and the implications for geopolitics.

China’s energy surge in recent years has been staggering. The country added 217 gigawatts of solar capacity in 2023, and kept growing into 2024 and 2025. It is also leading the world in batteries and electric vehicles. Joseph explains how China’s energy investments intersect with military tech, particularly in AI and batteries, positioning China as a global leader in energy and technology innovation. Is the US struggling to keep up?

Then, late drama! While we were recording, China finally released its new NDC, pledging a relatively modest 7-10% emissions reduction from peak levels. Some other countries and climate campaigners had hoped for more ambition. But the numbers involved are still staggering. The NDC sets a target of expanding wind and solar capacity to 3,600 GW by 2035, six times 2020 levels, and three times the entire generation capacity of the US, in all technologies. Ed, Amy, David and Joseph react to the news in real time and debate what it means for energy in the US and beyond.

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