First-home buyer cap impact on prices

In this episode, Lachlan and Reece break down the state of the Australian property market heading into 2026 from the banks, to investors, to the hidden risks no one is talking about.

Australia’s real estate market has now hit $12 trillion in mortgage debt, making it the country’s largest investment class by a mile. We unpack how this happened, what it means for buyers and investors, and why the landscape is shifting faster than most people realise.

We also cover the national growth impact of the 5% deposit scheme, the massive surge in investor lending now making up 40% of all loans, and the real reasons banks are quietly pulling out of trust lending.

We also discuss:

• Why banks may increase interest rates instead of decreasing
• The hidden risks of off-the-plan property in 2026
• How to choose the right buyer’s agent and avoid costly traps
• Big signals from lenders that investors should be paying attention to
• What these trends mean for Australian property moving forward

Whether you're an investor, homebuyer, or watching the property market closely, this episode gives you the clearest breakdown of what’s really happening in the market, and what to prepare for in 2026.

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction

02:10 Australian Real Estate Debt at $12 Trillion

04:35 How Much Have Property Values Grown Since The 5% Deposit Scheme

09:19 Advice For Property Investors in 2026

10:07 The Surge In Investor Lending (What this means?)

13:20 Why Banks Are Pulling Out of Trust Lending

18:53 Be Careful About Off-The-Plan Properties & Spruikers 21:13 How Wrong Advice Can Cost You Your Whole Savings

24:20 Are Banks Going To Increase Interest Rates in 2026

Key Themes:

• Australian property market 2026
• Property investing Australia
• Housing market update- Investor lending 2025
• Interest rate rise Australia
• Trust lending Australia
• Off-the-plan risks
• Real estate predictions
• 5%% deposit scheme Australia
• Australian mortgages
• Buyers agents Australia

About the Folio Property Podcast

Each week, Reece Beddall & Lachlan Delahunty break down the biggest conversations shaping Australian property. From market cycles to debt, strategy, data, and real-world insights, we make property simple, honest, and practical.

📍Visit Our Website: https://follio.com.au/

📩 Contact Us: info@follio.com.au

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Reece Beddall: https://www.linkedin.com/in/reece-beddall-294557b3/

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