2min chapter

Odd Lots cover image

Brad DeLong on the FTX Collapse and the South Sea Bubble

Odd Lots

CHAPTER

Sam Bankman Free

If you want to be a rich person and live a rich life, you moderate your bets according to what's called the Kelly criterion. You value you won't take a bet that involves a 50% chance of losing half your money unless the upside more than doubles. The problem with Sam Bankman Free then company is that they've been listening to these philosophers who are telling them that they should make any positive net present value value bet whatsoever. And if you do that, if you make much riskier bets than the Kelly criterion, then you wind up bankrupt with very high probability and extraordinarily filthy rich but still positive expected value.

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