Victor Haghani – The Last of the Tactical Allocators (S7E13)
Flirting with Models
Navigating Equity Returns and Risks
This chapter explores the portfolio construction process, focusing on expected returns and risk measures for investors. It discusses the cyclically adjusted earnings yield as a predictor of long-term real returns for equities and compares various forecasting methods with established market leaders. The chapter emphasizes the importance of simplicity in metrics while addressing criticisms of models like CAPE and the role of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities in measuring real returns.
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