What Can the Sahm Rule Tell Us About the Economy?
On Investing
Focus on Economic Reports, Fed's Beige Book, Tapering, and Earnings Season
The speakers discuss the importance of staying informed about economic reports, the Fed's beige book, and the potential tapering of quantitative tightening. They also highlight the beginning of earnings season and how it can drive volatility in the market, emphasizing the significance of company outlooks and commentary in the current economic uncertainty.
In this episode, Schwab's Chief Fixed Income Strategist Kathy Jones interviews former Fed economist Claudia Sahm. And Schwab's Chief Investment Strategist Liz Ann Sonders discusses the December jobs report with Kevin Gordon. Liz Ann and Kevin look at the differences between the numbers in the household survey and the establishment survey—and how this data will affect the fight against inflation, among other topics. You can see the charts they mention in this article: Mixed Signals: December's Jobs Report.
Kathy and Claudia discuss the Sahm rule, which is an indicator of a recession, and its purpose in providing policymakers with direction for providing relief during economic downturns. The conversation then shifts to the labor market, with Claudia highlighting its resilience and the need for a sustainable expansion. The discussion moves on to inflation, with Claudia explaining that recent inflation has been driven by supply-side shocks rather than demand. She expresses confidence in the Fed's ability to reach its 2% inflation target. Their conversation also touches on the debate within the Fed and the potential impact of the Fed's communication on financial markets.
You can follow Claudia Sahm's newsletter, Stay-at-Home Macro, at https://stayathomemacro.substack.com/.
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