Chris explains his debt-focused 2025 strategy

Chris Lopez, Jim Pfeifer, and Paul Shannon run a year-end Pulse Check on what worked in 2025, what did not, and where they are deploying capital in 2026. The hosts compare notes on gold and silver, why hard assets helped, and why many expected more multifamily distress than actually appeared. They dig into operator risk, liquidity as an edge, and the niches they like now, from B-class value add with day one cash flow to flex industrial and neighborhood retail. They also cover contrarian views on office and coastal markets, the interest rate outlook and fixed versus floating debt, non-performing loan plays in multifamily, and fresh survey data on where passive LPs plan to invest this year.

Key Takeaways

• 2025 recap: hard assets helped. Gold and silver hedged uncertainty while real estate rewarded disciplined underwriting
• Fewer fire sales than expected: multifamily distress was patchy and operator specific rather than a broad wave
• Liquidity matters: dry powder, lines of credit, and redeemable debt funds enable fast moves on real opportunities
• 2026 opportunities: multifamily with positive leverage, flex industrial for small business users, and durable neighborhood retail tenants
• Class focus: lean toward higher quality assets and cleaner capex profiles when the price is right
• Debt positioning: many LPs favor income and down-stack protection; consider fixed rate for sleep-at-night, float selectively if thesis supports it
• NPL angle: buying notes on discounted basis can create multiple paths to value if you underwrite conservatively
• Market views: watch select coastal recoveries and Midwest affordability tailwinds; expect fewer easy wins and more operator-driven value
• Community pulse: survey shows strong 2026 appetite for multifamily and debt, with investors sizing checks meaningfully higher than last year

Disclaimer

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