The Poverty of Historicism

The course of history is in large part determined by new technology. Even when these things are invented, we're not very good at figuring out how they're going to change the world. The iPhone comes along and it's referred to by one critic as a 'not very good email' At about the same time, the Segway comes out - people say it will revolutionise personal transportation. And we've asked for a decade and the Segway is essentially nowhere. So even Steve Jobs couldn't forecast the way in which the Segway would have an impact.