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SI169: Buying the Dip ft. Richard Brennan

Top Traders Unplugged

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Can We Predict Returns in a Complex Adaptive System?

We recognize that our ability to predict outcomes in a complex adaptive system is pretty low. But there's one thing we can kind of forecast, something we hang our hats on to some degree, right? And that is volatility. So if your monthly standard eviation is five, youp weshould expect somewhere between, call it, 20 to 30 % drawdowns. That was like 20, 30 years at the time. It just shows you te t, you know, thei situation we are in when it comes to risk and why risk management is such a crucial part of what we do.

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