The main evidence for my optimism is history. Look at the last c f hundred years very carefully, scientifically, look at the evidence,. It's very, very clear that progress is real, and that progress has been due to technology. We could say fairly that after two or 300 years, a pretty steady, but minor increase over each year, that it could stop. That is possible. There's a greater than zero chance, but it's very,very unlikely.

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