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Holden Karnofsky - Transformative AI & Most Important Century
Dwarkesh Podcast
The Innovation Mining Metaphor Is From Another Bit of Cold Takes
I think of ideas as being somewhat like natural resources in the sense that once someone discovers a scientific hypothesis or even what someone writes a certain great symphony, that's something that can only be done once. And so it gets harder and harder over time to have revolutionary ideas because the most revolutionary easiest to find ideas have already been found. So maybe one piece of skepticism that somebody could have about transformative AI is that all this is going to be bottlenecked by the non-automatable steps in the innovation sequence. I ultimately think there's enough reason to think that if you had AI systems that had kind of like human like reasoning and analysis capabilities, I think you shouldn't count on this kind
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