Intro

It’s been quite the week in Westminster. A sacking, a defection, and a deepening crisis on the right. Robert Jenrick’s move to Reform has capped off a dramatic few days for the Conservatives. While Nigel Farage has celebrated the moment, calling it a historic realignment of centre-right politics in the United Kingdom, the Prime Minister has described the Conservative Party as a "sinking ship".

So what does this mean for the future of the Conservatives? And what does Jenrick’s defection mean for Reform - is there a real possibility that Reform could win the next election?