Examining the Flaws in Population Predictions

For decades, the great fear was overpopulation. Now it’s the opposite. How did this happen — and what’s being done about it? (Part one of a three-part series, “Cradle to Grave.”)

• SOURCES:
  • Matthias Doepke, professor of economics at the London School of Economics.
  • Amy Froide, professor of history at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County.
  • Diana Laird, professor of obstetrics and gynecology at the University of California, San Francisco.
  • Catherine Pakaluk, professor of economics at The Catholic University of America.

• RESOURCES:
  • "Fertility Rate, Total for the United States," (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 2025).
  • "Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021," (The Lancet, 2024).
  • "Suddenly There Aren’t Enough Babies. The Whole World Is Alarmed." by Greg Ip and Janet Adamy (The Wall Street Journal, 2024).
  • "Taxing bachelors and proposing marriage lotteries – how superpowers addressed declining birthrates in the past," by Amy Froide (University of Maryland, 2021).
  • "Is Fertility a Leading Economic Indicator?" by Kasey Buckles, Daniel Hungerman, and Steven Lugauer (National Bureau of Economic Research, 2018).
  • The King's Midwife: A History and Mystery of Madame du Coudray, by Nina Rattner Gelbart (1999).
  • The Population Bomb, by Paul Ehrlich (1970).
  • "An Economic Analysis of Fertility," by Gary Becker (National Bureau of Economic Research, 1960).

• EXTRAS:
  • "What Will Be the Consequences of the Latest Prenatal-Testing Technologies?" by Freakonomics Radio (2011).