The Economic Impact of AI on the Economy

By the time AI can do 20% of cognitive tasks in the broader economy, maybe they can already do 40 or 50%. And so they could have already really started accelerating the pace of progress by the time we get to that 20% economic impact threshold. I mean, at that point, you could easily imagine really it's just one year, you give them a 10x bigger brain that's like going from chimps to humans and then doing that jump again. That could easily be enough to go from 20% to 100% just intuitively. Sometimes the plans for making the whole thing go well, it's especially scary because  we're around the human level.