Are We in Recession Now? Or Are We Close to It?

The risk of recession in the next 12 months is definitely real. The fat by cutting back on money supply growth and raising the fed funds rate so sharply, is giving a jolt to the economy. And there's just no question that this is going to have an effect on on growth going forward. A lot of us think that the a risk of recession over the next year is more than 50%.