
Noisy Decisions
More or Less: Behind the Stats
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How Much Do You Think Insurance Writers Weach?
When you ask people, by how much would you expect two underwriters looking at the same risk to differ from each other? People know that there will be a difference. But the correct number is 50 % or above, five times larger than what people expect. And similarly, in an experiment in the united states where the verage sentence was seven years, you take two judges at random and you look at the difference between the sentences they would pass, and it is four years. That defines the lottery that the defendant faces.
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