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Karl Friston on the Perils of Investigations into Consciousness, Derealization, and the Free Energy Principle
Theories of Everything with Curt Jaimungal
The Importance of Bayes' Rule in Probability Theory
In real life and in real scientific thinking people normally have eight hypotheses or a hundred hypotheses. They're scoring all of them by evaluating the marginal likelihood of the data that they have carefully solicited to maximally disambiguate among their hypotheses. There is an answer to that, it's called the principle of optimal design,. First articulated by people like Lindley in the 1950s and then re-articulated by people like David McKay in active learning.
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