The S&P 500 Is Breaking to the Upside

The FOMC statement took the S&P back above 4,150 which is the 50% retracement point of the big move down from 4,800 down to the bottom. The only time since the market bottomed that we've gotten up to this level was the CPI print a month ago but December 12th, CPI was just an intraday spike that very quickly retraced. Big picture it seems to me there are three possibilities here. Number one, this is a bear market rally that fails right here around the 50%. Scenario number two: This is a bearMarket rally that fails at or near the 61.8% retracements level which is just above