Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Skin in the Game
EconTalk
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Prediction Markets
In inseptial domains, a right the fellow really matters much less than a payoff. So when we talk about prediction markets, people think that prodiction markets hedge you. They don't hedge you. A prodiction market is a binery. And and an exposure is often ended. Life is open ended, and life is often end. It's very lo it's very deep. Because i i think i had the same thought about the civil war. The civil war, i think people thought it was going to last two weeks. But if they had had a little bit of imaginings...they might have had some second thoughts exact.
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