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The Russian Empire and the Crimean War
In 1904, the Russian Empire was sure that it would defeat Japan. They sent their fleet all the way around Africa to be sunk by the Japanese right away. After 1861, the next important turning point in the Russian Empire is the revolution of 1905. So there's a pattern here. It's a pretty important historical pattern. You want to have your country reform lose a war. But if you want to lose a war, there's a trick, which is start one. That's like, that'll usually get you there.