Alternative Activity Measures Contradict Slump

After all the kite-flying, the doom-laden briefings and the policy U-turns, the UK Budget landed well with the markets. But did gilts rally simply because the news wasn’t worse, or has the government genuinely won over the bond vigilantes?  And for all the initial success in launching this Budget, where is the strategy that will lift the UK’s anaemic growth? Chief UK Economist Paul Dales and Deputy Chief UK Economist Ruth Gregory join David Wilder to assess the Budget’s impact, the economic fallout and why lingering political uncertainty still points to more bond-market volatility in 2026.

Plus, Chinese fixed-asset investment is falling, prompting debate among China watchers about whether it's a sign the crackdown on price wars and overcapacity is biting. But China Economist Leah Fahy explains why there could be less to investment's weakness than the success of Beijing’s policies – and the latest reading of our China Activity Proxy helps show why.

Analysis and events referenced in this episode

Watch: The Autumn Budget – What’s next for the economy and markets?
Register: Autumn Budget – What does it mean for the property outlook?
Read: Autumn Budget - Markets give the smaller-than-expected Budget the thumbs up
Explore: The economic and market impact of AI
Read: CAP: Growth slows, but industry still going strong