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The Fed's $3 Trillion Problem | Maroon Macro & Joseph Wang
Forward Guidance
The Bear Market in Long Duration Treasury Bonds Continues
I think if inflation weren't 8%, I think duration catching a bid would be a near certainty. There's going to be a flight to safety trade like Maroon mentioned, right? So we treasury tend to tenure hit like 3.2 almost, and then now the back growth rate. We have slower real growth, but we have higher inflation, maybe increasing inflation. And so that might lead to some issues in the Treasury market even though the Treasury market is 40% larger than it was just a few years ago.
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