Crowding out: capital and consumer impact

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt sits down with Ben Hunt to break down his new Epsilon Theory essay, World War AI. They explore how the US government, markets, and Big Tech are rapidly shifting the AI narrative from productivity and progress toward a national security arms race with massive implications for energy, capital, jobs, inflation, and the broader economy. Ben explains why AI buildout is consuming enormous resources, how this echoes World War II scale mobilization, why consumers are already feeling the strain, and what policies could still steer the country toward a healthier economic path.

Topics covered:
• Why the AI narrative flipped from optimism to national security
• How AI CapEx creates shortages of energy, capital, and investment elsewhere
• The parallels between AI buildout and World War II economic mobilization
• Why the promise of AI-driven productivity and leisure was never realistic
• The coming squeeze on consumers through higher prices and reduced availability
• Why energy bottlenecks and electricity scarcity may lead to rationing
• The risk of stagflation and a shrinking job base as AI replaces human labor
• The political paths this could take, from authoritarianism to backlash
• Ben’s three-policy plan: reshoring, energy expansion, and electricity caps
• How investors should think about the boom-bust risk of hyperscale growth
• Why awareness and public conversation are essential before the window closes

Timestamps:
00:00 AI narrative shift and the failure of the carrot
01:20 Measuring narratives through Perscient Pro
05:30 Why Ben wrote World War AI
07:30 The carrot vs. the stick in AI storytelling
11:00 Utility bills, consumer squeeze, and rising economic pressures
12:30 World War II-level spending and debt dynamics
15:30 Crowding out the consumer economy
17:00 Interest rates, borrowing, and capital shortages
20:00 Energy usage, electricity scarcity, and cost-push inflation
24:00 Rationing risk and historical parallels
26:00 Jobs, productivity, and AI’s impact on labor
31:00 The lack of new job creation in an AI-driven economy
33:00 Why new-tech job optimism does not apply here
38:00 Market skepticism and narrative extremes
41:00 Political risk, backlash, and potential future paths
42:20 The three policies: reshoring, energy buildout, electricity caps
49:30 Investment implications and the boom-bust cycle
55:00 How AI growth must be subordinated to broader economic goals
57:00 Why connecting consumer pain to AI buildout is essential
59:30 Early signs of state-level limits on data centers
01:02:00 Where to follow Ben Hunt and the continuing story