Daniel Kahneman and Olivier Sibony: Noise
The Book Club
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The Business of Judgment
The business of judgment in a kind of cognitive sense or an effective sense is feeling you come to a judgment is a feeling rather than a rational process. And that somehow compensates us for the fact that it may be wrong. I mean in general a massive, you know, very common observation in judgment is overconfidence. That's because in general there are plausible alternatives. We tend to be overconfident on the solve this time.
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