And so it is very much up in the air for a lot of this. There's a lot more uncertainty when it comes to betting on the NBA. Now, when it comes to taking advantage of that uncertainty, where do you fall? Let's talk sides and totals before we talk props here, because on the one hand, you have overnight lines, a lot softer, a lot less money coming in, a lot lower limits, but a lot more uncertainty, which you can play to your advantage. However, the flip side of that is waiting and finding out some of this lineup news. You get a lot more certainty, but you also have to be a lot quicker when it comes to firing away on some of these bets. Now, in your opinion, would you rather play the uncertainty of the overnight angles or are you waiting for lineup news when it comes to sides and totals here what is your approach you

know i used to do nba totals that was one of my main originations that i've done and i talked about that before it was based on a referee angle um and i always didn't like the overnight lines mainly because the information i needed for my model was released daily by the NBA as to what referees were going to be assigned to which games. If you have the wherewithal to beat an overnight line as an originator, you would be better to wait and bet that as late as possible on the morning of the game. In other words, you're not waiting until the actual game, but if you bet too early into the market and you're pegged as someone who is influencing the market, you're probably giving up your real alpha, your real signal too early, and you're not getting paid enough for it. The book should have to pay you for your information. So if you can wait until those limits are several thousand higher, which is the morning of a game, that's probably a better situation for being an originator. Now, if you're just somebody who is looking to do top-down betting, you don't want to be betting overnight lines. There's just not enough information in those lines for sufficient top-down betting. Top-down betting, you wait until the market is its most liquid and its most elastic. And that's going to be in the, I'm talking Eastern time here, in like the 3 to 6 p.m. range for a slate that starts at 7 p.m. And

so it's really not the same as the NFL where you're saying, well, you know, if you're betting into these markets at Sunday morning game time, you're just getting crushed. Right.

Yeah. So the NFL that is over a much longer time period, you know, we have all week in most cases. So you kind of compress that week long into a single 24-hour period really more like an 18-hour period and you can kind of see the the correlation there of being that midweek sweet spot is also like afternoons on an NBA game day now

um how about props let's get into the props a little bit here and again we're not we're not last let's face it, was really about talking more about the unabated toolkit that we have. But I know that one of the common questions that we are getting in the Discord right now, especially, is what is your approach to props using the unabated tools here? You know, the prop simulator does produce edges and say, hey, this is your edge on this game. How are you attacking those? Is there a range of edges that you're looking at? And we're going to get into a lot more here because I know you did a premium live stream earlier this week. And if you are an unabated member, you should really check that out. You had a lot of fantastic prop knowledge in there. But let's start talking about that a little bit here. Yeah.

So this is a really common question, as you mentioned. And there's a couple different data points here. So I'm just going to kind of fire through what's in my mind. The phrase, all markets tend towards efficiency. It doesn't mean markets reach efficiency. It means they tend towards efficiency. The greater the time lapse through the market, the more efficient it will become. That's true for games, you know, from the opening line to the closing line. But it's also true for seasons. And that's something that a lot of people overlook. The market right now, we're at the start of the season, is the most inefficient it's going to be, and it's going to slowly get more efficient. So there's a lot of things that we know about the NBA season, and there's so much more that we don't know. What will be the effect of this player or that player? What will be the effect of this rule change? What will be the effect of this new coach or something like that? We'll kind of learn that as the season goes on, and that's going to add to the efficiency. But right now, there's a lot of unknowns. You can't really go by preseason NBA because there's a lot of teams and players that are just trying things out or going through the motions or fighting for a roster spot, that sort of thing. So playing their son. Yeah. So the efficiency of the market is the first thing. So when there is a greater variance in the market, you need to be cognizant of what side of favorites or underdog you're on. So, and this is pretty logical. If you're faced with a high variance situation, you want to be in position to bet a little and win a lot because that's when variance favors you. You don't want to be in a position to bet a lot to win a little because those are the situations where you don't want variance to creep in. And we know variance is going to be all around at this point. So when given the choice, and I gave this example on the live stream the other day, when given the choice of having the same EV on two different lines, but one of them is at like minus 140, let's say under seven and a half assists, minus 140. And the other one is under six and a half assists, even money. You would want to go with the one that is the even money, the less vig you're having to pay, the less that you'll have to bet more to win less situation, because there's a lot of variance early season. Now, later in the season, when we have a lot more view of what a player is and isn't and how the models are lining up to make these projections, you could consider going with the one that is the minus 40 laying more to win less type of situation because there's higher certainty there. So that's one of the key things for if you're betting early season NBA. And I think the other thing, and sorry, Tom, if you have like a whole list of items to go through and I'm just kind of... No, please continue. So the other thing is this term covariance. And you need to be aware of covariance anytime that you are betting into props. Look, NBA props are all based on minutes and usage and how they perform based on how many minutes are on the court. This isn't a secret sauce moment. This is something that's pretty well known across anyone who does prop betting. So it all keys off of that minutes projection, right? Well, what if the minutes projection is a little off?