The History of Revolutionary Ideas: The Bayesian Revolution w/David Spiegelhalter
Past Present Future
Bayes and the Foundations of Probability
This chapter examines the historical context of probability in the 18th century, focusing on how Bayes transformed its understanding from mere predictions of future events to a deeper inquiry into causation. It highlights the philosophical discussions surrounding probability, including its implications for the belief in God, and the criticism from contemporaries like Hume. Through practical examples and innovative analogies, the chapter illustrates the evolution of probability theory, emphasizing Bayesian reasoning's role in interpreting limited data.
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