2min chapter

80,000 Hours Podcast cover image

#53 - Kelsey Piper on the room for important advocacy within journalism

80,000 Hours Podcast

CHAPTER

The Right Approach to Predicting Crime Rates

Tetlock recommends using reference class forecasting which is if you don't have a good answer to a question you just figure out what the general category of the question is and what the answer would be. For will homicide rates decline I asked what if I'd asked this question in 2000, 2001 or 2002? It turns out that if you predicted homicides would decline you would only be wrong four years out of the last 20 years every other year homicides declined. There are some reasons to think maybe that trend is flattening out but there's lots of reasons to not be sure about it.

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