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4min chapter
Rationality And Its Opposite — Steven Pinker
The Joe Walker Podcast
Is the Past History Representative of the Future?
Could the post-1945 decline of wars among great powers and developed states just be a result of representativeness bias? Andre Schleifer argues people don't pay enough attention to possibility that recent history is generated by chance or a random process rather than by their model. In change point analysis, you can estimate whether there is some likely to be some change in the underlying generator.
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