The Probabilistic Framework for Crypto Trading

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Raul: I tend to operate with crypto Twitter at two levels. One is overall sentiment. Who's killing who and what they're angry about? And understanding whose narrative is under threat, how they're feeling emotionally threatened by something happening. Then I try and look at the people and it rotates. You can't say anything without somebody criticizing you for something you've said. It's just insult after insult after insult. Raoul: If indeed investing is hard, there's so many more assets now. There's so many potential bullish use cases that might emerge out of crypto.

Are we entering Crypto’s Spring? Raoul Pal is the Co-Founder and CEO of Real Vision, a financial media and education platform focused on Macro, Investing, and Crypto.

In today’s episode, we cover:1) The Aftermath of the 2022 Meltdown.2) How to Invest in the face of the current liquidity and external Indicators. 3) Why Raoul thinks we’re headed toward Deflation, not Inflation. 4) What AI will bring to the table, and how it intersects with Crypto 5) Why the Crypto Winter is probably over.

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------ TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro 7:20 The 2022 Meltdown 22:14 The Aftermath 27:26 Liquidity Indicators 34:51 External Indicators 37:54 Raoul’s Deflation Thesis 50:29 The State of AI 56:19 How Crypto & AI Intersect 1:00:43 The Implications of AI 1:08:14 Crypto’s Inflection Moment 1:11:43 Investing in the Current Climate 1:19:00 Raoul’s Portfolio 1:20:39 Crypto’s North Star 1:28:49 The Everything Code 1:35:26 Closing & Disclaimers

------ RESOURCES Raoul Pal⁠https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI⁠

Real Vision ⁠https://www.realvision.com/⁠

Real Vision Newsletter ⁠https://www.realvision.com/dailybriefing⁠

The Everything Code ⁠https://www.realvision.com/issues/the-everything-code-part-1-the-renaissance⁠

------ RELATED EPISODES:

118 - Raoul Pal | Should We Be Scared Right Now? ⁠https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nzGMSKbqjco⁠

------ Not financial or tax advice. This channel is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. This video is not tax advice. Talk to your accountant. Do your own research.

Disclosure. From time-to-time I may add links in this newsletter to products I use. I may receive commission if you make a purchase through one of these links. Additionally, the Bankless writers hold crypto assets. See our investment disclosures here: ⁠https://www.bankless.com/disclosures⁠