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Belarusian roulette: a mutiny’s aftermath

The Intelligence from The Economist

Belarus and Mr Lukashenko Have Been Thrust Back Onto the World Stage

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Belarus and Mr Lukashenko have been thrust back onto the world stage here. What do you see for the country's role in the war from here on out? Well, I think that part of this deal will be that Lukashenko doesn't have to contribute troops to the Ukraine war effort. He really does not want to get involved in this war. It would be extremely unpopular with people at home. If Wagner continues to exist as an entity inside Belarus, that it could mount operations from Belarus into Ukrainian territory. That's probably what the deal will look like, whether that actually does happen in practice. We'll have to wait and see, but I'm sure that's the plan

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