In this episode, Danny Dayan breaks down his framework for analyzing financial conditions and their real-time impact on growth and inflation. He explains why traditional rate transmission mechanisms are breaking down, how immigration and tariffs are distorting the labor market and inflation, and why the Fed may be behind the curve. Danny also lays out his case for a structurally weaker dollar, warns about a “doom loop” dynamic, and shares how he’s positioning his portfolio through it all. Enjoy!
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This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:08) Macro Overview
(06:18) Digging Into the Data
(11:03) Financial Conditions Framework
(12:11) VanEck Ad
(12:56) Financial Conditions Framework
(28:47) VanEck Ad
(29:26) Right Way to Think About Fed Funds
(38:56) Outlook on the Dollar
(46:40) What Does this Mean for Equities?
(50:44) Inflation & Growth Impulse Scenarios
(54:01) Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
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