This is my conversation with Will Thomson of Massif Capital, a long-short fund in real assets, and particularly the “sectors most important to a low carbon economy: Energy, Basic Materials and Industrials.” It complements a written Q&A on the firm's process and thematic outlook.

A few highlights:

Will is fairly bearish on the current setup of a stable, globalized world. He believes we’re moving from a highly integrated world to a multi-polar one in which “spheres of influence” play a much greater role and affect commodities and trade. Energy and food are example sectors in which nations will increasingly to protect their own interests and create resilience.

“What comes next is going to be very different from the past 30 years. And it’s going to be very good, I think, for real assets and natural resources.”

“We're gonna see a fundamental re-working of trade flows along different geopolitical lines.”

Political acumen will become more important for management teams. (An anecdote from Disney on its philosophy operating abroad: “We always ask, ‘how does it reflect on the Mouse?’”)

The collapse of the USSR led to a decline in Russia’s industrial capacity relative to its commodity production, leaving global commodity markets well supplied. That stability has come to an end.

Europe’s decarbonatization efforts could go into overdrive and lead to attractive long-term opportunities among utilities and industrials.

Will doesn’t believe he can forecast commodity cycles but his best guess is that we’re in the "first third."

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