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Ep. 249 - The Sleeping Beauty Problem

The Local Maximum with Max Sklar

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The Relationship to the Monty Hall Problem

I think it's very difficult to... Did you already talk about the potential link to Monty Hall? That was in the email. I think what he's saying here is that if the probabilities are close to a third, but even if they're not a third, you've just decreased the chance of the one seat from winning. Another way of thinking about it, you're essentially just adding a six team team six. You're essentially adding the probability that that team six is really good and it's going to beat everyone - which honestly might not be that high. Although in baseball, it might be.

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